With vaccine distribution underway, some may say that it’s only a matter of time before schools and businesses reopen and “normal” life can begin again. However, while the vaccine certainly plays a huge role in ending the pandemic, issues with vaccine rollout for students combined with current trends of new COVID-19 cases may complicate the reopening of schools.

Under California’s vaccine distribution plan, teachers and other school staff will receive priority following health workers and long-term care residents, but vaccination among the student body remains an issue, as students without underlying health issues or disabilities would not receive priority. Additionally, both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have age limits at 16 and 18 years and above, respectively, barring much of the student population from getting vaccinated, even at the high school level.

Vaccine distribution nationwide has also gotten off to a slower start than previously expected, with only 12.4 million doses of the vaccine distributed by the end of December compared to earlier estimates of 20 million doses by the same time. Although the number of daily cases has decreased from its peak this month and a new White House administration has promised to speed up vaccine distribution, a delayed vaccination schedule could continue to cause problems for plans to reopen school.

“I don’t feel very safe going to school without a vaccine. I believe we need around 60 to 80% of the population to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, which seems unlikely to be reached by the end of the school year,” said senior Anthony Chiang. “All in all, I think keeping our family safe from unnecessary health risks is our top priority, and that we should keep with the online format.”

The post-holiday COVID-19 surge complicates matters further, with California and the Los Angeles area being hit particularly hard; in January, California reported over 3 million total cases of COVID-19, averaging 20,000 to 50,000 a day.

Nonetheless, the state of California, under the leadership of Governor Gavin Newsom, plans to guide schools to gradually reimplement in-person learning, starting with the youngest children from transitional kindergarten to second grade and those most disproportionately impacted, and later phasing in other grades throughout the spring.

In a website launched on Thursday, Jan. 14, state officials outlined their reopening plan to include a $2 billion budget, or around $450 per student, to support safety measures in the classroom, including distributing personal protective equipment and implementing frequent testing for both students and staff. The plan also included the use of a School Portal for Outbreak Tracking (SPOT) to track cases, and specified that districts would also be required to report positive school COVID-19 cases to local health departments.

Tools also included in the SPOT website are an “Evidence Summary” document containing information supporting safe in-person instruction, as well as a “Rationale” page emphasizing the benefits of in-person learning.

Other resources offered on the website include options to send feedback or request technical support, a map displaying the reopening status of each district, and various COVID-related scientific findings and studies.

While the original plan was to start reopening in-person school in early February, the continuous surge of cases combined with vaccination complications indicates that the original schedule may have been too optimistic, a concern voiced by several Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) labor union partners.

“There is little likelihood the low-income communities we serve will meet the ‘Safe Schools for All’ initial target date of Feb. 1st and many experts say even Mar. 1st is unlikely, given current health conditions,” LAUSD Superintendent Austin Beutner, joined by six other superintendents of large, urban school districts, wrote in a statement. “Sadly, statewide COVID numbers appear to be moving in the wrong direction in nearly every meaningful category—infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.”

Arcadia Unified School District (AUSD) will also follow the state’s Safe Schools for All plan for restarting in-person schooling, but the reopening will likely be delayed past early February.

In “Coronavirus Update 33,” the latest in a series of communications and updates concerning the district’s response to the pandemic, Superintendent David Vannasdall emphasized the importance of “focus[ing] on consistency and stability” for students and minimizing disruptions. As of the update, AUSD schools will keep the online format until given the green light for a long-term, sustainable return to in-person instruction.

“Right now, we continue to be in that top tier in L.A. County, so nothing has changed,” Superintendent Vannasdall said. “We hear a lot from the state level and county level about possible plans, but when you boil it down and look at those plans, it always has that asterisk—‘unless you’re in the top tier’, ‘unless you’re at this many cases per hundred thousand’—so a lot of that hopeful planning that you hear doesn’t pertain to us at this time.”

The district and city have begun establishing an “infrastructure for mass distribution” of the vaccine and have also stepped forward to see if they can hold vaccination sites for the community. Some district nurses and staff have already received the vaccine.

In light of recent progress towards reopening, Superintendent Vannasdall expressed his appreciation for the city and community for stepping up to counter the pandemic, as well as his confidence in returning to school by the end of the 2020-2021 school year and definitely by next fall.

“We are still in the middle of COVID-19, in very serious times with very serious numbers… At the same time, we’re filled with hope, and I feel like we’ve been running this marathon, and we can see the end.”

Photo courtesy of JHSPH.EDU